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decision theory to characterize when learning or discriminating among competing probability models is challenging. I also use … choice theory under uncertainty to explore the ramifications of model uncertainty and learning in environments in which … underpinnings of asset pricing models. I illustrate how statistical ambiguity can alter the risk-return tradeoff familiar from asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465708
We identify which types of Social Security reforms are supported when people vote in their financial self-interest, under alternative economic and demographic projections and voting proclivity assumptions. While 40% of voters have negative lifetime net transfers, less than 10% have negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479934
benefits of risk reduction, leaving systems with more frequent adjustments that spread risks broadly among generations as those …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463965
may serve as an effective tool to share aggregate risk between generations. Our quantitative analysis shows that, first … social security does indeed represent a Pareto improving reform, if households are both fairly risk-averse and fairly willing … overturns these gains for degrees of risk aversion and intertemporal elasticity of substitution commonly used in the literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469293
This paper studies the macroeconomic and efficiency effects of privatizing social security. It does so by simulating alternative privatization schemes using the Auerbach-Kotlikoff Dynamic Life-Cycle Model. The simulations indicate three things. First, privatizing social security can generate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473058
Projected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459805
Most of our productive knowledge was handed down to us by previous generations. The transfer of knowledge from the old to the young is therefore a cornerstone of productivity growth. We study this process in a model in which the old sell knowledge to the young - - old workers train the young,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474092
A structural life-cycle retirement model with an improved specification over previous models is used to analyze and compare the long-run labor supply effects of the rules for Social Security in place in 1972,1977 and 1983, and for an actuarially fair system. The effects of separate provisions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477887
implications for the allocation of risk between generations. There is no reason to presume that the market or the family can … allocate risk efficiently to future generations, implying that stochastic government policies have the potential to create …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477349
-generational transmission of wealth. Financial markets are incomplete, exposing agents to both labor income and capital income risk. We show … that the stationary wealth distribution is a Pareto distribution in the right tail and that it is capital income risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463917