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and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic … volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566
We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464771
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts: In export-oriented emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with faster...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453086
Can directed technical change be used to combat climate change? We construct new firm-level panel data on auto industry innovation distinguishing between "dirty" (internal combustion engine) and "clean" (e.g. electric and hybrid) patents across 80 countries over several decades. We show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460065
We propose and test a novel economic mechanism that generates stock return predictability on both the time series and the cross section. In our model, investors' income has two sources, wages and dividends, that grow stochastically over time. As a consequence, the fraction of total income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470415
/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852
widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then … put the theory to work, producing a superior combined estimate of GDP growth for the U.S., GDPC. We compare GDPC to GDPE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461237
An impulse response is the dynamic average effect of an intervention across horizons. We use the well-known Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to explore a response's heterogeneity over time and over states of the economy. This can be implemented with a simple extension to the usual local...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226168
and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266
This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in a small, open economy with a floating exchange rate, sticky wages, and rational expectations in both the asset and labor markets. The model developed emphasizes the link between exchange-rate depreciation and nominal wage inflation, embodying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478433