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Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries : How Much Does it Pour and Why?

Arroyo Marioli, Francisco; Végh, Carlos A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets and developing economies and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. It first shows that the degree of fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322818

Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics

Stock, James H. - 2003

The volatility of economic activity in most G7 economies has moderated over the past forty years. Also, despite large increases in trade and openness, G7 business cycles have not become more synchronized. After documenting these twin facts, we interpret G7 output data using a structural VAR that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468838

Business Cycle Volatility and Openness : An Exploratory Cross-Section Analysis

Razin, Assaf - 1992

This paper links business cycle volatility to barriers on international mobility of goods and capital. Theory predicts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474757

Globalization, Structural Change and International Comovement

Bonadio, Barthélémy; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the roles of globalization and structural change in the evolution of international GDP comovement among industrialized countries over the period 1978-2007. In recent decades, trade integration between advanced economies increased rapidly while average GDP correlations remained stable....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322746

Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration

Aizenman, Joshua; Ho, Sy Hoa; Luu Duc Toan Huynh; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship between the real exchange rate and international reserves using nonlinear regressions and panel threshold...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537783

The Global Dollar Cycle

Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247924

Henriksen, Espen - 2009

Cyclical fluctuations in nominal variables--aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates--are documented to be substantially more synchronized across countries than cyclical fluctuations in real output. A transparent mechanism that can account for this striking feature of the nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463527

Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2005

risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive macroeconomic model accounting for about 80% of world output, we propose …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467187

International Trade and Business Cycles

Baxter, Marianne - 1995

together--there is a world component to business cycles. This paper argues that capital accumulation and international capital … flows are central to understanding world trade and business cycles. In particular, fluctuations in net exports and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473868

World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation

Fernández, Andrés - 2016

intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847

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