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Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

Hirshleifer, David - 2018

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453421

Do Sell-Side Analysts Say "Buy" While Whispering "Sell"?

Hirshleifer, David; Shi, Yushui; Wu, Weili - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We examine how sell-side equity analysts strategically disclose information of differing quality to the public versus the buy-side mutual fund managers to whom they are connected. We consider cases in which analysts recommend that the public buys a stock, but some fund managers sell it. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210060

Who Benefits from Analyst “Top Picks”?

Birru, Justin - 2020

Following the Global Settlement, analysts extensively use a top pick designation to highlight their highest conviction best ideas. Such a designation enables analysts to provide greater granularity of information, but it can potentially be influenced by conflicts of interest. Examining a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482257

Information Content of Equity Analyst Reports

Asquith, Paul - 2002

This paper investigates the market reaction to the information released in security analyst reports. It shows that the market reacts significantly and positively to changes in recommendation levels, earnings forecasts, and price targets. While changes in price targets and earnings forecasts both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469463

Noise in Expectations : Evidence from Analyst Forecasts

De Silva, Tim - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585447

Forecasting Stock Market Returns : The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole

Ferreira, Miguel A. - 2008

We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns: dividend yield, earnings growth, and price-earnings ratio growth. We obtain out-of-sample R-square coefficients (relative to the historical mean) of nearly 1.6% with monthly data and 16.7% with yearly data using the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464077

Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information

Daniel, Kent - 2003

We decompose stock returns into components attributable to tangible and intangible information. A firm's tangible return is the component of its return attributable to fundamental accounting-performance information, and its intangible return is the component which is orthogonal to this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468955

Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts

Chan, Louis K. C. - 2003

distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469156

Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook : An Update

Campbell, John Y. - 2001

The use of price earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470503

Four Centuries of Return Predictability

Golez, Benjamin - 2014

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852

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