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This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for a broad range of commodities, including energy, precious and base metals, and agricultural commodities. In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462821
We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012454997
, including influential studies identifying price bubbles in periods of high volatility. Here we consider a model of the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459625
growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453945
This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for … commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances … domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463197
Given a European derivative security with an arbitrary payoff function and a corresponding set of" underlying … securities on which the derivative security is based, we solve the dynamic replication problem: find a" self-financing dynamic …-dependent options and options on assets with stochastic volatility and jumps. " …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472561
volatility associated with current dynamic hedging strategies. There will thus be less information transmitted to those people … trades implied by the dynamic hedging strategies, In effect, the stocks' future price volatility can rise because of a … replacement of a real security by synthetic strategies may in itself cause enough uncertainty about the price volatility of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476711
correlated with prices and inventory signals, but we reject the Keynesian "hedging pressure" hypothesis that these positions are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465403
This paper analyzes the joint responses of commodity futures prices and traders' futures positions to changes in the VIX before and after the recent financial crisis. We find that while financial traders accommodate the needs of commercial hedgers in normal times, in times of distress, financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460735
speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in … producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity) increase hedging costs via price-pressure on futures, reduce producers … associated with producer hedging demand rises when speculative activity reduces. We conclude that limits to financial arbitrage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461784