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Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305
A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected asset returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322736
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
mean and volatility of aggregate consumption growth, by a representative agent with a high elasticity of intertemporal … increasing the persistence of volatility fluctuations and their impact on stock prices. This calibration fits the predictive … power of stock prices for future consumption volatility, but implies much greater predictive power of stock prices for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463859
-dependent options and options on assets with stochastic volatility and jumps. " …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472561
An efficient method is developed for pricing American options on combination stochastic volatility …/jump-diffusion processes when jump risk and volatility risk are systematic and nondiversifiable, thereby nesting two major option pricing … models. The parameters implicit in PHLX-traded Deutschemark options of the stochastic volatility/jump- diffusion model and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474344
the mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of a rare disaster that is calibrated based on … turns out to be crucial to the model's ability to explain both equity volatility and option prices. We explore different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459050
This paper analyzes optimal portfolio choice and consumption with stochastic volatility in incomplete markets. Using … for stocks under stochastic volatility varies strongly with the investor's coefficient of relative risk aversion, but only … preference parameters. This paper also shows that stochastic variation in volatility produces an optimal intertemporal hedging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471407
It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular models such as GARCH. We consider two major dollar exchange rates, and we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471288
Most affine models of the term structure with stochastic volatility (SV) predict that the variance of the short rate is … stochastic volatility (USV)." Of the models tested, only the A1(4) USV model is found to generate both realistic volatility … estimates and a good cross-sectional fit. Our findings suggests that interest rate volatility cannot be extracted from the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467934