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mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749
We study a standard collective action problem in which successful achievement of a group interest requires costly participation by some fraction of its members. How should we model the internal organization of these groups when there is asymmetric information about the preferences of their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226188
Two potentially asymmetric players compete for a prize of common value, which is initially unknown, by exerting efforts. A designer has two instruments for contest design. First, she decides whether and how to disclose an informative signal of the prize value to players. Second, she sets the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247957
How does lie detection constrain the potential for one person to persuade another to change her action? We consider a model of Bayesian persuasion in which the Receiver can detect lies with positive probability. We show that the Sender lies more when the lie detection probability increases. As...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210093
We analyze the offering, asking, and granting of help or other benefits as a three-stage game with bilateral private information between a person in need of help and a potential help-giver. Asking entails the risk of rejection, which can be painful: since unawareness of the need can no longer be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388842
This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts produced by the Phillips curve generally have been more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471777
Forecasts of professional forecasters are anomalous: they are biased, forecast errors are autocorrelated, and forecast … revisions predict forecast errors. Sticky or noisy information models seem like unlikely explanations for these anomalies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696404
Subsequent to the October 1979 shift in monetary policy in the United States, interest rates in North America not only reached unprecedented levels,but also exhibited unprecedented volatility. This paper shows that the anticipated quarterly changes in long-term rates associated with the rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477202
This paper addresses the question of whether nominal Eurocurrency interest rates provide significant information about expected inflation. To test this question two sets of inflation forecasts for the U.S. and five European countries were generated: 1) from time series of past inflation rates;2)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477544
and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266