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Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts

Hirshleifer, David - 2018

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453421

Four Centuries of Return Predictability

Golez, Benjamin - 2014

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852

Financial Machine Learning

Kelly, Bryan T.; Xiu, Dacheng - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889

New Forecasts of the Equity Premium

Polk, Christopher - 2004

premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468287

Noise in Expectations : Evidence from Analyst Forecasts

De Silva, Tim - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585447

Forecasting Stock Market Returns : The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole

Ferreira, Miguel A. - 2008

We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns: dividend yield, earnings growth, and price-earnings ratio growth. We obtain out-of-sample R-square coefficients (relative to the historical mean) of nearly 1.6% with monthly data and 16.7% with yearly data using the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464077

Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information

Daniel, Kent - 2003

We decompose stock returns into components attributable to tangible and intangible information. A firm's tangible return is the component of its return attributable to fundamental accounting-performance information, and its intangible return is the component which is orthogonal to this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468955

Analysts' Conflict of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts

Chan, Louis K. C. - 2003

distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469156

Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook : An Update

Campbell, John Y. - 2001

The use of price earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470503

Changing Times, Changing Values : A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013

Bunn, Oliver D. - 2014

We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458297

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