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Alesina, Alberto - 2016

We investigate how criminal organizations strategically use violence to influence elections in order to get captured politicians elected. The model offers novel testable implications about the use of pre-electoral violence under different types of electoral systems and different degrees of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456581

Social Structure and Conflict : Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Moscona, Jacob - 2018

to conflict and civil war. Ethnographic accounts suggest that in segmentary lineage societies, which are characterized by … individuals. We test for this link between segmentary lineage and conflict across 145 African ethnic groups in sub-Saharan Africa …. Using a number of estimation strategies, including an RD design at ethnic boundaries, we find that segmentary lineage …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453504

Partisan Conflict and Private Investment

Azzimonti, Marina - 2015

American politics have been characterized by a high degree of partisan conflict in recent years. Combined with a … this end, I construct a novel high- frequency indicator of partisan conflict. The partisan conflict index (PCI) uses a … may help explain the slow recovery observed since the 2007 recession ended. Partisan conflict is also associated with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457394

Measuring the Tolerance of the State : Theory and Application to Protest

Andirin, Veli; Neggers, Yusuf; Shadmehr, Mehdi; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the regime's tolerance as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334386

Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984

Alesina, Alberto - 1986

This paper tests the existence and the extent of a politically induced business cycle in the U.S. in the post-World War II period. The cycle described in this paper is different from the traditional "political business cycle" of Nordhaus. It is based on a systematic difference between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477132

Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles

Rogoff, Kenneth - 1986

There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477238

Inversions in US Presidential Elections : 1836-2016

Geruso, Michael - 2019

Inversions--in which the popular vote winner loses the election--have occurred in 4 US Presidential elections. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one percentage point (which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480191

Pork Barrel Cycles

Drazen, Allan - 2006

We present a model of political budget cycles in which incumbents influence voters by targeting government spending to specific groups of voters at the expense of other voters or other expenditures. Each voter faces a signal extraction problem: being targeted with expenditure before the election...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466478

Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies

Brender, Adi - 2004

Like other recent studies, we find the existence of a political deficit cycle in a large cross-section of countries. However, we find that this result is driven by the experience of new democracies'. The strong budget cycle in those countries accounts for the finding of a budget cycle in larger...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468154

Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy

Persson, Torsten - 1997

This paper surveys the recent literature on the theory of macroeconomic policy. We study the effect of various incentive constraints on the policy making process, such as lack of credibility, political opportunism, political ideology, and divided government. The survey is organized in three...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472486

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