Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted …. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two … decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead …

Many states in Latin America, Africa and Asia lack the monopoly of violence, identified by Max Weber as the foundation … establishment of the monopoly of violence and the formation of the state. We build a model to explain the incentive of central … predictions of our model using data from Colombia between 1991 and 2006. We first present regression and case study evidence …

Colombia, we bring together data on expected upward mobility, exposure to violence, and symptoms of psychological trauma. After …We explore the impact of violence on perceived prospects of upward mobility. For a sample of victims of violence in … controlling for material losses and current circumstances, we find that exposure to more severe violence leads victims' perceived …

, increasing group incomes raises violence against that group, and lowers violence generated by it. We then apply the model to data … on Hindu-Muslim violence in India. Our main result is that an increase in per-capita Muslim expenditures generates a …. These findings speak to the origins of Hindu-Muslim violence in post-Independence India …

novel survey to collect program-level information on quality determinants and average outcomes for Brazil, Colombia …