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This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362020
We provide a model for why high beta assets are more prone to speculative overpricing than low beta ones. When investors disagree about the common factor of cash-flows, high beta assets are more sensitive to this macro-disagreement and experience a greater divergence-of-opinion about their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460112
Dividends seem to be more heavily taxed than capital gains. Why then do corporations pay dividends rather than repurchasing shares or retaining earnings? Either corporations are not acting in the interests of shareholders, or else shareholders desire dividends sufficiently for nontax reasons to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478738
dividend yield is typically viewed as a reflection of either changing risk, related to the business cycle, or irrational … mispricing. Extending the work on asset allocation and dividend yield by Kandel and Stambaugh (1996) to accommodate variation in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470049
This paper presents a bound on the variance of the price-dividend ratio and a decomposition of the variance of the … price-dividend ratio into components that reflect variation in expected future discount rates and variation in expected … future dividend growth. Unobserved discount rates needed to make the variance bound and variance decomposition hold are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475884
Many recent theoretical papers have come under attack for modeling prices as Geometric Brownian Motion. This process can diverge over time, implying that firms facing this price process can earn infinite profits. We explore the significance of this attack and contrast investment under Geometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473845
values of returns, dividend growth, the dividend-price ratio, and all Campbell-Shiller-style regression results involving …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544759
their dynamics. Using the model, we price dividend strips of the aggregate market index, as well as any other well …-diversified equity portfolio. We do not use any dividend strips data in the estimation of the model; however, model-implied equity yields … generated by the model match closely the equity yields from the traded dividend forwards reported in the literature. Our model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250137
Household investors chase stock market returns. Surveys suggest that households intend to "ride the bubble" by buying stocks early in a boom and selling stocks early in a bust. This implies that households use only liquid assets to chase returns. I test this prediction using inflows to fixed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458307
We examine abnormal stock returns surrounding contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements in order to determine … interaction effect.The abnormal return corresponding to any earnings or dividend announcement depends upon the value of the other … more credence to unanticipated dividend increases or decreases when earnings are also above or below expectations, and vice …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477849