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Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections
Calvo, Richard; Pons, Vincent; Shapiro, Jesse M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections since 1952. We envision a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094858
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Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning : a Three-Step Approach
Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, gradient linear boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322806
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Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effect
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Mineyama, Tomohide; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576667
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Interest Rates and World Trade : An 'Austrian' Perspective
Antràs, Pol - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper develops a framework to study the interplay between world trade and interest rates. The model incorporates an explicit notion of time and of production length, along the lines of the 'Austrian' tradition of Böhm-Bawerk (1889). Changes in the interest rate affect production lengths,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537738
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A Framework for Geoeconomics
Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Governments use their countries' economic strength from existing financial and trade relationships to achieve geopolitical and economic goals. We refer to this practice as geoeconomics. We build a framework based on three core ingredients: input output linkages, limited contract enforceability,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436983
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China’s Foreign Trade and Investment, 1800-1950
Keller, Wolfgang - 2020
The First Opium War (1840-42) was a watershed in the history of China. In its aftermath Britain and other countries …-organized under Western management, Western legal institutions were introduced in China in form of courts and legal practices, and … foreigners in China were tried according to the laws of their country of origin (extraterritoriality). To better understand the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481413
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Exporting from China : The Determinants of Trade Status
Cooper, Russell - 2020
This paper studies the exporting decision of Chinese manufacturing firms. The economic framework stresses the dynamic decision by both state controlled and private entities to export in a model with labor adjustment costs. In this complex environment, a simple decision rule whereby export status...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482507
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A Global View of Productivity Growth in China
Hsieh, Chang-Tai - 2011
take this classic question to the data by measuring the spillover e¤ects of China's productivity growth. Our framework … the spillover e¤ects of China's productivity growth are small causing the real incomes of China's trading partners to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461879
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Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity
Bloom, Nicholas - 2011
-specific quotas following China's entry into the World Trade Organization. Chinese import competition had two effects: first, it led …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461940
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China's Foreign Trade : Perspectives From the Past 150 Years
Keller, Wolfgang - 2010
This paper studies the trade of China in the past 150 years, starting from the first opening of China after the Opium … War. The main purpose of the paper is to identify what is (and was) China's 'normal' level of foreign trade, and how these … levels changed under different trade regimes, from 1840 to the present. We present new evidence on China's foreign trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462107