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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013480876
data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462513
Are firms' expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459673
This paper develops a set of approximate band-pass filters designed for use in a wide range of economic applications. In particular, we design and implement a specific band-pass filter which isolates business-cycle fluctuations in macroeconomic time series. This filter was designed to isolate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473871
This paper investigates the degree of short run and long run comovement in U.S. sectoral output data by estimating sectoral trends and cycles. A theoretical model based on Long and Plosser (1983) is used to derive a reduced form for sectoral output from first principles. Cointegration and common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474413
This paper evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates over time. Analysis of the NBER methods suggests that the early turning points are derived from detrended data, while the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474820
The conventional wisdom in macroeconomic modeling is to attribute business cycle fluctuations to innovations in the level of the fundamentals. Though volatility shocks could be important too, their propagating mechanism is still not well understood partly because modeling the latent volatilities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455010
The ifo Investment Survey asks firms in the German manufacturing sector about the importance of sales, technological factors, finance, return expectations, and macroeconomic policy for their investment activity in a given year. We show that these subjective investment determinants 1) capture...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459672
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000134802
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