Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of … product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation … and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets …

never been constant. Globalization increased poor country specialization in commodities when the world went open after the … of life deep into the 18th century. Does world market integration breed more or less commodity price volatility? The … been associated with much greater commodity price volatility, while world market integration associated with peace and pro …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges that have been observed worldwide in the last three … decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation following surges tends to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation … exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of …

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …

explaining bouts of inflation. We begin by showing that a quasi-flat Phillips curve, which was popular prior to the pandemic …, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … played a major role in the recent inflation episode. We then document features of the joint dynamics of inflation and …

The COVID-19 pandemic as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine have had profound effects on the global energy … fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …