Showing 1 - 10 of 905
We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479517
We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474721
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465322
This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and … switching is thus a possibility for China to receive a double benefit, rebalancing trade with a welfare gain. This has … countries with a trade surplus, such as China, an origin basis offers a lower tax rate on an equal yield basis and reduced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461971
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on … changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465061
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies … revised US-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995 … US-CHINA bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472213
This paper 'goes back to basics' in empirical analysis of the J-Curve. First, we document strong violations in the distributional assumptions that underlie nearly all previous work on this issue. Second, we employ distribution-free, non-parametric statistical tests to characterize the data and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470359
We investigate the behavior of the long-run U.S./U.K. real exchange rate from 1885 to 1995. Our long-run real exchange rate series is derived from an unobserved components model which divides the real exchange rate into permanent and transitory components. The transitory component is modeled as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473057
In this paper we have constructed a theoretical model in which Asian firms maximize their profit, competing with Japanese and US firms in their markets. The duopoly model is used to determine export prices and volumes in response to the exchange rate fluctuations vis-…-vis the Japanese yen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471508
The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and these are derived from intertemporal optimization. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478114