common factors estimated from a large panel of data to help forecast the series of interest. This paper assesses the extent … method stands out to have smaller forecast errors. This method forecasts the series of interest directly, rather than the …

models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

produce more radical forecasts. Since these more radical forecasts are in general less accurate, ex post forecast accuracy …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of … individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that …

to the median forecast from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). While the MF-VAR performed poorly during 2020:Q …