Showing 1 - 10 of 3,670
This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389
We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient … factor model. Finally, on top of high accuracy, the approach is flexible and can be extended seamlessly beyond world trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322806
medals? Why does China win 6% of the medals even though it has 1/5 of the world's population? We consider the role of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470733
The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
Group testing increases efficiency by pooling patient specimens and clearing the entire group with one negative test. Optimal grouping strategy is well studied in one-off testing scenarios with reasonably well-known prevalence rates and no correlations in risk. We discuss how the strategy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481312
This paper presents a procedure for estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 using a structural SIR model of the pandemic. Our procedure combines the flexibility of noteworthy reduced-form approaches for estimating the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic to date with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481529
Firm characteristics, based on accounting and financial market data, are commonly used to represent firms in economics and finance. However, investors collectively use a much richer information set beyond firm characteristics, including sources of information that are not readily available to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015398104
We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194984
We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840
This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362020