achieved in real time for forecast horizons of up to two years. A particularly promising model is a six-variable Bayesian …

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are …

premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We …

/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …

areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … compared with farmers without access to forecasts. Even modest improvements in forecast skill would substantially increase …

forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no … rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by … improve on the forecast of a "no change" benchmark in the late (1999-2007) but not early (1987-1998) parts of our sample …

widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then …

volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …

evidence that the forecast of the Markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate …