constructed by only controlling for the staff forecasts imply responses of macro variables at odds with theory. We directly link …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

expected inflation. Such nominally sticky discount rates imply that increases in expected inflation directly lower firms' real … shocks and higher investment in response to government spending. Sticky discount rates imply that inflation has real effects … inflation expectations and permanently lowers the long-run inflation target in response to expansionary shocks, even when shocks …

The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper … constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass …, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers' inflation … expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers …' inflation expectations capture the broader distribution of societal beliefs about inflation. This research has revealed very …

inflation to monetary policy …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …