the spot rate. We use the surveys to decompose the bias into a protion attributable to the risk premium and a portion … attributable to systematic prediction errors. The survey data suggest that our findings of both unconditional and conditional bias …

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …

The purpose of the paper is to measure the potential bias in the U.S. import price index due to the appearance of new … product varieties, or new foreign suppliers, and determine the effect of this bias on the estimated income elasticity of … import demand. Existing import price indexes are based on a sample of products from importing firms. We argue that if the …

Reducing systemic liquidity risk related to seasonal swings in loan demand was one reason for the founding of the … extent of banks' ability to mitigate seasonal loan demand variation predict banks' decisions to join the Federal Reserve …

regarding aggregate productivity. The shock to this public signal, or "news shock," has the features of an aggregate demand … employment. A calibrated version of the model is able to generate realistic amounts of short-run volatility due to demand shocks …

some, but not all, of the approximation bias …