We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment …. Step 1: estimate individual transition hazards across employment, temporary layoff, permanent layoff, quitter, entrant, and … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of …

the employment outcomes of older workers in the United States. We start by discussing what we know about how older workers … effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on employment and unemployment rates by age group and sex using Current … Population Survey data. We calculate employment and unemployment rates multiple ways to account for the complicated employment …

show how lowering the cost of serving public debt has been associated with higher real output growth …

assets. This has immediate effects on output and factor demands because collapsing collateral values cut access to working …

small and negative spillovers to output in other countries but positive spillovers on employment. (g) A two-speed recovery … significantly reduced the share of demand- constrained sectors, preserving employment in these sectors. (f) Fiscal policy exerted …

Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not …. Applying our framework to data for Colombia, which exhibits an employment distribution similar to that of other emerging market …. Because informal jobs and those not fit for telework are at higher risk, this number goes down to 33% if the US employment …

policies on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper, we … quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a narrative … four year horizon, a 10 percentage point decrease in the maximum LTV ratio leads to a 1.1% reduction in output. As a rule …