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macroeconomic states. Data-driven P-Tree models reveal that idiosyncratic volatility and earnings-to-price ratio interact to drive … cross-sectional return variations in U.S. equities; market volatility and inflation constitute the most critical regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477297
We introduce artificial intelligence pricing theory (AIPT). In contrast with the APT's foundational assumption of a low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072953
We document that value-to-price, the ratio of Residual-Income-Model-based valuation to market price, subsumes the power of book-to-market ratio and many other value or quality measures in predicting stock returns. Long-short value-to-price portfolios hedge against momentum, revitalize the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226164
% of the volatility of the equity premium. A targeted subsidy that decreases diversification improves welfare by increasing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250139
A number of papers have solved for the optimal dynamic portfolio strategy when expected returns are time-varying and trading is costly, but only for agents with myopic utility. Non-myopic agents benefit from hedging against future shocks to the investment opportunity set even when transaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094900
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the long-run dependence in financial market volatility is best characterized by … a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. At the same time, much shorter-lived volatility dependencies …-of-distributions hypothesis interpretation of the latent volatility process in rationalizing this behavior. By interpreting the overall volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473082
volatility. The news component of volatility is not positively autocorrelated on these dates, since the news is released at a … these announcement dates, and (2) the persistence pattern of daily volatility is quite different around these days …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473418
It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock … for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large … for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475263
This paper introduces the News Impact Curve to measure how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. A … shape of the News Impact Curve. New diagnostic tests are presented which emphasize the asymmetry of the volatility response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475330
We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334428