A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …

In his 2004 inflation targeting manifesto, Marvin Goodfriend described US monetary policy as implicit inflation … targeting and advocated explicit targeting. Summarizing the 1965-2000 US inflation experience, he highlighted the importance of …, no conflict arises between flexible inflation targeting and maintaining/accumulating credibility. Second, implicit …

This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers' inflation … expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers …' inflation expectations capture the broader distribution of societal beliefs about inflation. This research has revealed very …

Why do some attempts at disinflation lead to substantial reductions in inflation while others do not? We investigate … that a fundamental determinant of success in reducing inflation was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to … disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … determines the path of expected inflation, while news about the present value of surpluses drives unexpected inflation. I use … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long …

This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We … competitive firms. Inflation is driven by the interaction of lack of commitment and the economic environment. We show that long …-run inflation increases following an unanticipated permanent increase in the labor wedge or decrease in the elasticity of …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

. One major aim of this outreach is to guide inflation expectations; another is to ensure accountability and create trust … on the extent to which this new outreach does in fact affect inflation expectations and trust. On balance, we see some …