policy analysis, researchers should use a menu cost model like ours or at least a third, theory-based shortcut: set the Calvo …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

constructed by only controlling for the staff forecasts imply responses of macro variables at odds with theory. We directly link …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … high real interest rates. Price stickiness means inflation will persist past an initial shock. To reduce inflation, fiscal … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional …

We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …

to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies--event studies, vector … through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

This paper considers a simple quantitative model of output, interest rate and inflation determination in the United … model matches the estimates responses to a monetary policy shock quite well and, once due account is taken of other … disturbances, can account for our data nearly as well as an unrestricted VAR. The monetary policy rule that most reduces inflation …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …