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We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247914
role for credit growth (beyond its role in constructing the inflation forecast) would reduce the volatility of output and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462254
To identify disruptions in credit markets, research on the role of asset prices in economic fluctuations has focused on the information content of various corporate credit spreads. We re-examine this evidence using a broad array of credit spreads constructed directly from the secondary bond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463785
This paper shows that stock volatility increases during recessions and financial crises from 1834-1987. The evidence … stock volatility, I show that volatility increases after major financial crises. Moreover. stock volatility decreases and … can control stock volatility. The evidence supports the observation by Black [1976] that stock volatility increases after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476091
We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469093
has also possessed excess volatility' in the past century. It finds no evidence of excess volatility in the pre-World War … I German stock market. By contrast, there is some evidence of excess volatility in the post-World War II German stock … volatility of German stock indices before 1914 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474925
Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474985
This paper compares several statistical models for monthly stock return volatility. The focus is on U.S. data from 1834 … volatility that are inconsistent with stationary models for conditional heteroskedasticity, We show the importance of … of stock volatility, even over the 1834-1925 period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476093
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476706
ownership and trades by large institutions lead to higher volatility and to increased return and liquidity comovement. Moreover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456429