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This paper considers the meaning of domestic and international systemic risk. It examines scenarios that have been … adduced as creating systemic risk both within countries and among them. It distinguishes between the concepts of real and … pseudo-systemic risk. We examine the history of episodes commonly viewed either as financial crises or as evidencing systemic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473496
in their business cycles relative to those of advanced economies. Information on the domestic price of risk, cost of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481606
Although internal policy mismanagements can be cited in most recent emerging market crises, they seldom account fully for the severity of these crises. The reluctance of international investors to provide the resources that would limit the extent of the reversal almost invariably plays a key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471969
In a model with multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria we add trade in assets that pay based on the realization of a sunspot. Asset trading restricts the equilibrium set in a way that raises welfare by eliminating equilibria with a high likelihood of disasters. When the probability of a disaster is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457853
correlations with developed countries' equity markets significantly reduces the unconditional portfolio risk of a world investor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474313
macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important … increases in economic uncertainty are strongly associated with a widening of credit spreads, an indication of a tightening in … financial conditions and economic uncertainty and to trace out the impact of these two types of shocks on the economy. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456616
usual stabilizing function because of the zero lower bound. We calibrate our uncertainty shock process using fluctuations in …Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its components? An identified uncertainty … shock in the data causes significant declines in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked. Standard general …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460240
, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities---led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463288
markets that had no connection to housing. We find that changes in the "LIB-OIS" spread, a proxy for counterparty risk, was … uncertainty about bank solvency and lower values for repo collateral. Concerns about the liquidity of markets for the bonds used …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463426
The current account reversals, large recessions, and price collapses that define Sudden Stops contradict the predictions of a large class of models in which the current account is a vehicle for consumption smoothing and investment financing. This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466098