risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive macroeconomic model accounting for about 80% of world output, we propose … find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity along with credit rating information matters a great deal for capturing …

Counseling website. We test the role information complexity, uncertainty about earnings, and the default option play. We show …

information state of the economy. At each date, in general there is either "good news" (the information state improves), "bad news …" (the information state gets worse), or "no news" (the information state remains the same). When rollover risk is high …. Thus, a small change in information, as measured by a change in the fundamental value, can lead to a "market freeze …

market liquidity and shorter debt maturity can exacerbate this externality and cause costly firm bankruptcy at higher … fundamental thresholds. Our model provides implications on liquidity-spillover effects, the flight-to-quality phenomenon, and …

-determining random variable. The model is estimated using individual-level consumer credit card information. The parameter estimates and …

liquidity may be related positively to the longer-term probability of default. Our empirical analysis confirms these predictions …