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Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market
Case, Karl E. - 1990
The U. S. market for homes appears not to be efficient. A number of information variables predict housing price changes and excess returns of housing relative to debt over the succeeding year. Price changes observed over one year tend to continue for one more year in the same direction....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475665
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There is a Risk-Return Tradeoff After All
Ghysels, Eric - 2004
risk and return in the stock market. This finding is robust in subsamples, to asymmetric specifications of the variance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467774
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Stock Return Predictability : Is it There?
Ang, Andrew - 2001
dividend yield, the earnings yield and the short rate. The predictability regression is suggested by a present value model with … earnings growth, payout ratios and the short rate as state variables. We use this model imposing a constant risk premium to … examine the finite sample evidence on predictability. Not only do we find the short rate to be a relevant state variable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470517
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Four Centuries of Return Predictability
Golez, Benjamin - 2014
returns. The documented predictability holds for annual and multi-annual horizons and works both in and out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852
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Immediate and Longer-Term Housing Market Effects of a Major U.S. Airport Closure
Cohen, Jeffrey P.; Coughlin, Cletus Charles; Crews, Jonas; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
A busy airport's closure has large effects on noise, real estate markets, and neighborhood demographics. Using a unique dataset, we examine the effects of closing Denver's Stapleton Airport on nearby housing markets. We find evidence of immediate anticipatory price effects upon announcement, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660063
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The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight : A Neo-Kindlebergerian View
Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Guren, Adam M.; McQuade, Timothy - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
With "2020 hindsight," the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom-bust but rather a boom- bust-rebound at both the national level and across cities. We argue this pattern reflects a larger role for fundamentally-rooted explanations than previously thought. We construct a city-level long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616588
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Housing Market Expectations
Kuchler, Theresa; Piazzesi, Monika; Stroebel, Johannes - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We review the recent literature on the determinants and effects of housing market expectations. We begin by providing an overview of existing surveys that elicit housing market expectations, and discuss how those surveys may be expanded in the future. We then document a number of facts about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191003
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The Marginal Cost of Mortality Risk Reduction : Evidence from Housing Markets
Bishop, Kelly C.; Kuminoff, Nicolai V.; Mathes, Sophie; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We provide the first evidence that spatial variation in all-cause mortality risk is capitalized into US housing prices …. Using a hedonic framework, we recover the annual implicit cost of a 0.1 percentage-point reduction in mortality risk among …, suggesting that the housing market provides an alternative, substantially cheaper channel to reducing mortality risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794649
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Dynamism Diminished : The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions
Davis, Steven J. - 2019
The Great Recession and its aftermath saw the worst relative performance of young firms in at least 35 years. More broadly, as we show, young-firm activity shares move strongly with local economic conditions and local house price growth. In this light, we assess the effects of housing prices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479422
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How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?
Guren, Adam M. - 2019
This paper uses a structural model to show that foreclosures played a crucial role in exacerbating the recent housing bust and to analyze foreclosure mitigation policy. We consider a dynamic search model in which foreclosures freeze the market for non-foreclosures and reduce price and sales...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480160