estimated unemployment rate for earlier rotation groups has grown sharply relative to the unemployment rate for later rotation … unemployment rate by rotation group and find that, despite the rise in rotation group bias, the official unemployment does no worse …

insight into the problem by examining the determinants of transitions between non-employment (or unemployment) and employment … measured by their education and 1990 wage, have shorter non-employment spells. I also present results for employment duration …. The most important similarity between the duration of non-employment and employment is the influence of the 1990 wage …

Most data used to study the durations of unemployment spells come from the Current Population Survey, which is a point …-in-time survey and gives an incomplete picture of the underlying duration distribution. We introduce a new sample of completed … unemployment spells obtained from panel data and apply CPS sampling and reporting techniques to replicate the type of data used by …

considerably lower wages. At the same time, the data provide no evidence that early unemployment sets off a vicious cycle of … recurrent unemployment. The reduced employment effects die off very quickly. What appears to persist are effects of lost work …

This paper analyses job seekers' perceptions and their relationship to unemployment outcomes to study heterogeneity and … duration-dependence in both perceived and actual job finding. Using longitudinal data from two comprehensive surveys, we … beliefs and ex-post realizations, to disentangle heterogeneity and duration-dependence in true job finding rates while …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of … history. Step 2: relate the aggregate components to the overall unemployment rate using a factor model. Step 3: combine the …

The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate, labor-force participation rate, and duration of unemployment … duration of unemployment substantially overstates the true duration of uninterrupted spells of unemployment and misrepresents … reconciliation. We find that the usual statistics understate the unemployment rate and the labor-force participation rate by about …

This paper presents new evidence on why unemployment insurance (UI) benefits affect search behavior and develops a … unemployment durations caused by UI benefits is due to a "liquidity effect" rather than distortions in marginal incentives to …