Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries since World War II, we build a dynamic …

.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1% U.S. dollar … appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6--0.8% decline within a year in the volume of total trade … between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian …

value chains (increased export platform production). Surprisingly, however, the elasticity of world trade to trade costs is …