We use Bayesian meta-analysis methods to estimate the impact of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on twelve primary outcomes from 114 studies of 72 UCT programs in middle and low income countries. Cash transfers generate strong and positive average treatment effects on ten of thirteen...

The demographic transition and economic growth in the Pacific Rim / Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, and Sang-Hyop Lee ; comments: Jocelyn E. Finlay, Jong-Wha Lee -- Population aging and economic growth in Asia / David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Jocelyn E. Finlay ; comments: Roberto S. Mariano,...

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless whether the devaluation takes place in the...

This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF...

When countries attempt to stabilize annual inflation rates that are greater than 40 percent, the domestic stock market appreciates by 24 percent on average. The present value of the long-run benefits to shareholders of reducing high inflation outweighs the present value of the short-run costs....

We argue that the disincentive effect of a debt overhang is generally small and consequently that debt reduction does not lead to important efficiency gains on this account. Instead, we develop a framework that highlights the inefficiency created by the liquidity constraint faced by...