which the duration of observed contracts changes with each observation. We document significant changes in oil futures risk … structure of crude oil futures risk premia over time …

the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility of oil prices. Our model predicts a …We use a new micro data set to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model of the oil industry. This effort is a … first step towards studying the importance of ongoing structural changes in the oil market in a general-equilibrium model of …

of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and …This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior … although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role …

, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world … account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods …We test for changes in price behavior in the longest crude oil price series available (1861-2008). We find strong …

This paper examines the effects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude … oil, refined oil products, and a non-oil good. The model incorporates different types of crude oil that are imperfect … substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data …

From 1997 through early 2003, the United Nations Oil for Food Program allowed Iraq to export oil in exchange for … of its oil below market prices in an effort to solicit bribes, both in the form of direct cash bribes and in the form of … political favors, from the buyers of the underpriced oil. We infer the magnitude of the potential bribe by comparing the gap …

This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for energy commodities (crude oil, gasoline …, heating oil markets and natural gas). In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate …

We conduct a comprehensive analysis of unspanned stochastic volatility in commodity markets in general and the crude-oil … market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in … the crude-oil market. We then develop a tractable model for pricing commodity derivatives in the presence of unspanned …

future oil price volatility derived from the NYMEX futures options market. Using a dynamic model of firms' investment problem …, I find that oil companies respond to changes in expected price volatility by adjusting their drilling activity by a … estimates firms' responsiveness to changes in uncertainty using detailed data on oil well drilling in Texas and expectations of …

limits future consumption, by shifting consumption to the present through lower present-day prices. We demonstrate that oil …. The bill's passage would have increased current global oil consumption by 2-4%. Furthermore, a strengthening of climate … court rulings signaling limited future fossil fuel use, were associated with negative abnormal oil future returns. Taken …