Showing 1 - 10 of 5,830
The neo-Fisher effect and the central bank information (CBI) effect produce similar outcomes: under both, a monetary tightening triggers an increase in inflation and an expansion in real activity. Separate estimates of these effects run the risk of confounding one with the other. To disentangle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145087
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210074
We develop a multisector, open economy, New Keynesian framework to evaluate how potentially binding capacity constraints, and shocks to them, shape inflation. We show that binding constraints for domestic and foreign producers shift domestic and import price Phillips Curves up, similar to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250196
We document that monetary policy has a substantial impact on innovation activities. After a tightening shock of 100 basis points, research and development (R&D) spending declines by about 1 to 3 percent and venture capital (VC) investment declines by about 25 percent in the following 1 to 3...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372455
We find that an unanticipated tightening of US monetary policy tends to raise US import prices. This empirical "spill-back" pattern differs from the predictions of typical open-economy macro models. We also document a new empirical "spillover" effect: import prices of other countries also rise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409843
Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456064
estimation of the Phillips curve are pointed out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468400
residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457925
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary. However, even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463462
generalized data tempering for "online" estimation (that is, re-estimating a model as new data become available), and provide … examples of multimodal posteriors that are well captured by SMC methods. We then use the online estimation of the DSGE model to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479349