In this paper we employ index number theory in addressing the problem of adjusting real national income and real … business sector;(ii) productivity growth or technical change; (iii) the effects on domestic real output of changes in the terms …

conventional export weighted index. Perhaps the most important result is that turning points in commodity-price inflation …This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 … prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation …

A standard statistical perspective on the U.S. Great Inflation is that it involves an increase in the stochastic trend … rate of inflation, defined as the long-term forecast of inflation at each point in time. That perspective receives support …, and statistical studies of U.S. inflation dynamics. We show that a textbook macroeconomic model delivers such a stochastic …

The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also … index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2 …) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which …

The paper derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884-1940. This index improves … component series that are consistent over time, and by not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index …

The standard source for pre-WWII global freight rate trends is the Isserlis British tramp shipping index. We think it … transported. Previous scholars have deflated their nominal freight rate indices by a price index that includes tradables not … indices for factor prices, we then calculate total factor productivity growth pre-war and interwar for five global routes …

factor productivity growth in countries where the capital-labour ratio has risen rapidly, e.g. the East Asian NICS, will … understate true productivity growth if the elasticity of substitution is less than one and there is labour augmenting technical … change. This note shows that this argument increases a Paasche measure of productivity, at the expense of lowering a …