This paper introduces a method for solving numerical dynamic stochastic optimization problems that avoids rootfinding operations. The idea is applicable to many microeconomic and macroeconomic problems, including life cycle, buffer-stock, and stochastic growth problems. Software is provided

We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth but firms can mitigate damages. We estimate a...

We introduce a novel simulated certainty equivalent approximation (SCEQ) method for solving dynamic stochastic problems. Our examples show that this method only requires a desktop computer to solve high-dimensional finite- or infinite-horizon, stationary or nonstationary dynamic stochastic...

Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the...

Using textual analysis of earnings conference calls, we quantify firms' supply chain risk and its sources. Our proxy for supply chain risk exhibits large cross-sectional and time-series variation that aligns with reasonable priors and is unprecedently high during the Covid-19 pandemic. In...

We characterize what features make supply chains more resilient. Using new data on the universe of firm-to-firm transactions from an Indian state, we identify firms with larger supplier risk following the Covid-19 lockdowns. Using an event-study design we find firms with suppliers in...

The paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages. Explicit solution of the wage-setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare, expected output, and the expected terms of trade....

This paper presents closed-form solutions for the investment and valuation of a competitive firm with a Cobb-Douglas production function and a constant elasticity adjustment cost function in the presence of stochastic prices for output and inputs. The value of the firm is a linear function of...