The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and … productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with …

The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper … constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass …, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most …

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but … exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences … that similarity can quantitatively account for the sharp post-pandemic rise in inflation expectations, particularly among …

1974 to 2017. We find that the official annual inflation rate understates welfare-relevant inflation for the poorest …

The recent financial crisis in Indonesia has resulted in dramatic price increases. Using very recent data, we …

variables may be fractionally integrated and the predictive relation may feature cointegration, we provide sup-Wald break tests …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …