Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … high real interest rates. Price stickiness means inflation will persist past an initial shock. To reduce inflation, fiscal … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional …

constructed by only controlling for the staff forecasts imply responses of macro variables at odds with theory. We directly link …

-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to estimate a "Fed non-yield shock", which is orthogonal to yield changes … and is identified from excess volatility in the S&P 500 and various dollar exchange rates. A positive non-yield shock …-yield shock is essentially uncorrelated with previous monetary policy shocks and its effects are large in comparison. Its strong …

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation …. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why … financial market risk. However, the structural estimation also finds that much of the causal impact of monetary policy on …

inflation to monetary policy …

inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after … an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, the most important are staggered wage contracts of average …

The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long … pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory …