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We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian … of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and sectoral shocks and (2) increase the pass-through of sectoral shocks to … aggregate inflation. Quantitatively, we confirm the significant role of production networks in shock propagation, emphasizing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287319
A parsimonious model of shifting policy regimes can simultaneously capture expected and actual US inflation during 1969 …. Private sector learning about policymaker type leads to a reputation state variable. We use model inflation forecasting rules … to extract state variables from SPF inflation forecasts. US inflation is tracked by optimal policy without commitment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477255
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
adapt its monetary policy rule to the fiscal stance to guarantee that inflation remains at its target. There is, however, a … minimum level of debt below which the steady-state inflation deviates from its target due to the zero lower bound on nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512073
expected inflation. Such nominally sticky discount rates imply that increases in expected inflation directly lower firms' real … shocks and higher investment in response to government spending. Sticky discount rates imply that inflation has real effects … inflation expectations and permanently lowers the long-run inflation target in response to expansionary shocks, even when shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512092
We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544727
Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388841
We propose a model where monetary policy is the key determinant of aggregate asset prices (financial conditions). Spending decisions are made by a group of agents ("households") that respond to aggregate asset prices, but with noise, delays, and inertia. Asset pricing is determined by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334351