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Macroeconomic implications of the beliefs and behavior of foreign exchange traders
Cheung, Yin-Wong (contributor);  … - 1999 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001511630
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Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders
Cheung, Yin-Wong - 1999
We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that (i) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (ii) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471364
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Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Evans, Martin D.D. - 1999
Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471467
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Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments
Frenkel, Jacob A. - 1984
This paper, written as a chapter for a Handbook of International Economics, reviews developments in the theory of … of exchange rate theory, starting with the monetary approach to exchange rate determination. Issues discussed in this … framework that views the question of exchange rate determination as part of the general theory of the determination of asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477808
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The Forward Exchange Market, Speculation, and Exchange Market Intervention
Eaton, Jonathan - 1983
This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange market. The model is used to examine two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances. Much risk averse speculation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477963
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Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market
Hartley, Peter R. - 1982
Many models of exchange rate determination imply that movements in money supplies and demands should result in movements in exchange rates. Hence, if rational agents are attempting to forecast exchange rate movements, they should in the first instance forecast movements in the supplies of and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478248
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Profitability and Stability in International Currency Markets
Bilson, John F. O. - 1981
A number of recent empirical studies have rejected the hypothesis that forward exchange rates are unbiased forecasts of future spot exchange rates. This result implies that there have been opportunities for speculative profit during the post Bretton Woods period. Observers of the floating rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478457
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Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market : A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model
Kouri, Pentti J.K. - 1981
dominated by 'new information' that leads to revision of speculative expectations, as well as by other disturbances on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478477
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Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market
Flood, Robert P. - 1981
The present paper is intended to accomplish two tasks. First, models predicting overshooting and magnification, respectively, will be checked for their consistency with two key empirical regularities: A. The observed pattern of price level vs. exchange-rate volatility. B. The observed pattern of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478498
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A Model of the Black Market for Dollars
Dornbusch, Rudiger - 1980
The paper develops an analytical framework to discuss the determinants of the premium in the black market for dollars in Brazil. While the specific details of the model were chosen with the Brazilian case in mind, the structure of the model is quite general and suitable for application to black...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478535