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Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474328
volatility and growth can be accounted for by the real common factor, which is proportional to world growth in our empirical …. We develop a multi-country version of the Lucas tree model with time-varying volatility and show that in addition to … the cross country variations of the realized volatility of equity returns. Using this theoretical insight, two common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453389
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009661611
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common component, we find evidence for a `world business cycle' as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472834
. The paper provides an overview of the new globalization trends in the world and in Israel, with emphasis on the role of … side only. On the demand side, the desire to invest has plunged, while people across the rich world are now saving much of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482557
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278
We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit markets across countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533383
Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458661