The fiscal theory states that inflation adjusts so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of … fiscal theory to interpret historical episodes, including the rise and fall of inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, the long … pegs, the ends of hyperinflations, currency crashes, and the success of inflation targets. Going forward, fiscal theory …

Why do some attempts at disinflation lead to substantial reductions in inflation while others do not? We investigate … that a fundamental determinant of success in reducing inflation was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to … disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

constructed by only controlling for the staff forecasts imply responses of macro variables at odds with theory. We directly link …

This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We … competitive firms. Inflation is driven by the interaction of lack of commitment and the economic environment. We show that long …-run inflation increases following an unanticipated permanent increase in the labor wedge or decrease in the elasticity of …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …