Showing 1 - 10 of 1,499
We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461943
We study the effect of releasing public information about productivity or monetary shocks when agents learn from nominal prices. While public releases have the benefit of providing new information, they can have the cost of reducing the informational efficiency of the price system. We show that,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464392
This paper provides an empirical analysis of the risk of trading revenues of U.S. commercial banks. We collect … quarterly data on trading revenues, broken down by business line, as well as the Value at Risk-based market risk charge. The … across business lines. These low correlations do not corroborate systemic risk concerns. Neither is there evidence that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467650
Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is … particularly challenging because the demands of real-world risk management in financial institutions - in particular, real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460575
We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility are robustly followed by contractions, while shocks to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915
feature higher risk free rates, lower risk premiums on fully diversified and concentrated assets, less capital accumulation …, yet higher consumption and welfare. Exposure to undiversified firm risk can explain approximately 40% of the level and 20 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250139
We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334345
We analyze the short and long-run performance of firms that were differentially affected by a new tax on dividends in the lead-up to the Global Financial Crisis. We use exogenous policy variation for firms with different legal statuses and financial year-end dates to causally identify the policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477300
probability distributions. This paper also explores the theoretical foundations of risk ranking, including proving a key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459163
Global risk and risk aversion shocks have distinct distributional impacts on emerging market capital flows and returns …. In particular, we find salient consequences of these different global shocks for tail risk in emerging markets. Open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435139