Showing 1 - 10 of 1,580
Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480620
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary policy and fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions also called online machine learning to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482520
This paper studies the impact of adult prosecution on recidivism and employment trajectories for adolescent, first-time felony defendants. We use extensive linked Criminal Justice Admin- istrative Record System and socio-economic data from Wayne County, Michigan (Detroit). Using the discrete age...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337757
Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management … strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334395
This paper builds on Froot and Stein (1998) in developing a framework for analyzing the risk allocation, capital budgeting, and capital structure decisions facing insurers and reinsurers. The model incorporates three key features: i) value-maximizing insurers and reinsurers face product-market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468510
for the development of public-private partnerships, as recognized in November 2002 when the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act … of 2002 (TRIA) was passed. This paper shows, however, that the temporary insurance system established by TRIA is neither … current level of demand for insurance coverage has remained low and we discuss some factors that may contribute to it. After …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468515
autarky, but also partial and full insurance can obtain, depending on the relative patience of agents and financial … intermediaries. Insurance can be provided because in an equilibrium contract an up-front payment effectively locks in the agent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468559
Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479929
estimation. We derive novel asymptotic properties for several of these models. To improve out-of-sample prediction accuracy and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457711
This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389