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-based questions. We show that inflation density forecasts are sensitive to the survey question designs used to elicit them. The within …-based inflation density forecasts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544685
the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not … most of the rise during the rebound. Inflation rates across firms have become more dispersed and skewed since the start of … the pandemic. We find that average price inflation is positively correlated with the dispersion and skewness of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388861
This paper analyses the response of firms to monthly CPI inflation releases using high-frequency data from a large … economy-wide business survey. CPI inflation perceptions respond very quickly, in a matter of hours after the release. We also … find that firms' expected own-price growth has a strong positive correlation with changes in CPI inflation, particularly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635694
conventional and aggregated inflation expectations. Our results chart a new course for designing measurement of inflation …This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts … across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436953
We document how supply-chain pressures, household inflation expectations, and firm pricing power interacted to induce … the pandemic-era surge in consumer price inflation in the euro area. Initially, supply-chain pressures increased inflation … through a cost-push channel and raised inflation expectations. Subsequently, the cost-push channel intensified as firms with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421216
We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840
We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of … historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross … section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many investors appear unaware of inflation-hedging strategies despite being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544748
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision … experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are … concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429
What is the effect of higher expectations of future inflation on current inflation? I compute this passthrough for a … most, expectations of long-run inflation are completely irrelevant; (v) I provide a generalized Phillips curve for current … inflation as a linear function of expectations of future inflation and realized past inflations; (vi) I show that the sum of all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334477
short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of … product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and nominal wages and to quantify the sources of U.S. pandemic-era inflation … and wage growth. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322804