Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates … helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical … the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make …

-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve which relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at … high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outward and reduces output. The … results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across …

adjustment. As a result, the response of inflation to nominal shocks is both sluggish and hump-shaped. The model can also … qualitatively capture a number of stylized facts about price setting at the micro level and inflation at the macro level …

relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes … flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization …, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of …

This paper analyzes the long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union. First, we aim at …some stylized facts relating the regional dispersion in headline inflation rates in the euro area as well as in the …-traded sector as the primary cause of price and inflation differentials, with shocks to productivity in the traded sector being …

In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a useful inflation … forecasting equation is difficult because of multiple sources of time variation in the inflation process, including changes in Fed … policy and credibility. We propose a tightly parameterized model in which the deviation of inflation from a stochastic trend …