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Will smart machines replace humans like the internal combustion engine replaced horses? If so, can putting people out of work, or at least out of good work, also put the economy out of business? Our model says yes. Under the right conditions, more supply produces, over time, less demand as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457725
This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to explore how trade openness affects the transmission of domestic shocks. For some calibrations, closed and open economies appear dramatically different, reminiscent of the implications of Mundell-Fleming style models. However, we argue such stark...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465026
Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455604
: experience, age, vintage and calendar year. The first section of the paper provides a brief outline of a theory of planned growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478991
When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, output, inflation, and government bond default premia are indeterminate according to a standard general equilibrium model with sticky prices extended to include defaultable public debt. With sunspots, the model mimics the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453965
import competition and the introduction of industrial robots. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure across US … manufacturing sector, only robots led to a sizable decline in population size. We provide evidence that negative employment … spillovers outside manufacturing, caused by robots but not by Chinese imports, can explain the different migration responses. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210076
Technological change, from the advent of robots to expanded trade opportunities, tends to create winners and losers …. How should government policy respond? And how should the overall welfare impact of technological change on society be … valued? We provide a general theory of optimal technology regulation in a second best world, with rich heterogeneity across …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480754
, to more intensive use and development of robots. Using US data, we document that robots substitute for middle … older to middle-aged workers--is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across … from country-industry variation in the adoption of robots. Our model also implies that the productivity implications of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453293
We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large … value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms and negative outcomes on competitors in the same industry. Our worker … earnings and employment rates, while other workers indirectly gain from robot adoption. We also find that the negative effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247929
Conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions or expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get re-elected, but this has not been tested in a large cross-section of countries. We test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960-2003. We find no evidence that deficits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466809