This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …

additional tests, some of which utilize data on adverse health events, suggests that the forecast biases are at least partly due …

areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … estimated. Using the full rainfall distribution and our profit function estimates, we find that Indian farmers on average under …

An important aspect of corporate governance is the assessment of managers. When managers vary in ability, determining …? This paper begins an exploration of that issue by considering the consequence of one such bias, the base-rate fallacy, for … due to the base-rate fallacy, they can also benefit from this bias …