Are fluctuations in firms' profitability risk a major cause of regular business cycles? We study this question within … such a model, surprise increases of risk lead to a wait-and-see policy for investment at the firm level and a decrease in … the size of firm-level risk fluctuations. We find that time-varying firm-level risk on its own is unlikely to be a major …

obtained in a complete information setting, where coordination is easy, to those obtained in a setting with strategic risk … deterrent effect under complete information, this does not hold anymore under strategic risk. Rather, we find that increases in … weapon stocks can have a non-monotonic effect on the sustainability of peace. We also show that under strategic risk …

power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price … estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk …

technologies and are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic income risk. The different asset trading technologies, which are …

"This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and … three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in … various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the …

Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the … Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that …-managed uncertainty introduces a wedge between the standard Taylor-type policy rule and the optimal decision. Using private Fed …

In this paper we study the neoclassical growth model with idiosyncratic income risk and aggregate risk in which risk … pay off depending on both idiosyncratic and aggregate risk, but limited commitment rules out that households sell these … conditions under which it has lower/higher risk premia than the corresponding representative agent version of the model …

We characterize how firms structure supply chains under climate risk. Using new data on the universe of firm …-to-firm transactions from an Indian state, we show that firms diversify sourcing locations, and suppliers exposed to climate risk charge … sourcing under climate risk. Firms diversify identical inputs from suppliers across space, trading off the probability of a …

In the face of rising climate risk, financial institutions may adapt by transferring such risk to securitizers that … to climate risk may be a drop in the ocean of cash flows. This paper builds a data set of the entire securitization chain … optimal deals by finding the portfolio weights in an asset demand system that targets return and risk. Extrapolating wildfire …