net impact of tariffs on domestic inflation, output, employment, and the dollar depends on the endogenous monetary policy ….S. output, a 0.8 pp rise in inflation, and a 4.8% appreciation of the dollar in response to a retaliatory trade war linked to …

magnitude. In either case, tariffs are always sharply contractionary for US GDP, increasing inflation and widening the trade …

does not tighten monetary policy. Imported energy inflation can spill over to wage inflation through a wage-price spiral …, but this does not mitigate the decline in real wages. Monetary tightening has limited effect on imported inflation when …

very powerful impact on today's consumption and inflation: because agents are partially myopic, this effect is muted. (v … "neo-Fisherian" in the long run, but Keynesian in the short run: a permanent rise in the interest rate decreases inflation …

rate together with QE or fiscal transfers, can stabilize three targets simultaneously: inflation, the aggregate output gap …

unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New … guidance less effective. In a counterfactual analysis, we document that inflation would have been significantly higher, and the … public perceived central bank forward guidance statements to be perfectly credible. Moreover, inflation would have declined …