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Uncertainty and Economic Activity : Evidence from Business Survey Data
Bachmann, Ruediger - 2010
What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462513
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The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
Chinn, Menzie D. - 2010
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the yield curve (or alternatively, the term premium) as a predictor of future economic activity. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor, both for the United States, as well as European countries. We examine the sensitivity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462258
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Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts : Can Private Forecasts Help?
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2016
Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456327
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Short-term economic forecasting
1955
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013456813
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The Right Amount of Trust
Butler, Jeffrey - 2009
We investigate the relationship between individual trust and individual economic performance. We find that individual income is hump-shaped in a measure of intensity of trust beliefs. Our interpretation is that highly trusting individuals tend to assume too much social risk and to be cheated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463306
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How Central Bankers See It : The First Decade of ECB Policy and Beyond
Cecchetti, Stephen G. - 2008
In this history of the first decade of ECB policy, we also discuss key challenges for the next decade. Beyond the ECB's track record and an array of published critiques, our analysis relies on unique source material: extensive interviews with current and former ECB leaders and with other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464158
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How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?
Boivin, Jean - 2008
This paper characterizes the transmission mechanism of monetary shocks across countries of the euro area, documents how this mechanism has changed with the introduction of the euro, and explores some potential explanations. The factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework used is sufficiently rich to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464457
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The Breakup of the Euro Area
Eichengreen, Barry - 2007
The possibility that the euro area might break up was being raised even before the single currency existed. These scenarios were then lent new life five or six years on, when appreciation of the euro and problems of slow growth in various member states led politicians to blame the European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465257
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The Euro and European Economic Conditions
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2011
inflation, other countries both in Europe and elsewhere have also had a decade of low inflation without incurring the costs of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461040
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The International Linkage of Real Interest Rates : The European - U.S. Connection
Cumby, Robert E. - 1984
rates has been widespread in the analyses by economic policymakers both in Europe and in the United States. In this paper we … been raised by the recent policy debates in Europe and the United States: Have ex ante real rates in the United States and … Europe been high during recent years? Has there been a link between U.S. real rates and those in other countries? Can this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477666